本書包含三篇內容。第一篇為體系貢獻率評估理論，主要從裝備的體系化發展與運用要求出發，建立了體系貢獻率評估的研究框架，梳理了支撐貢獻率研究的體系工程、系統科學等方面的基礎理論，構建了評估基準流程和指標框架，并在每個流程中都有一系列方法作為技術支撐。第二篇為體系貢獻率評估方法，主要以典型裝備系統體系貢獻率評估方法為基礎，分別從基于OODA的體系貢獻率能效綜合評估方法、面向使命任務的體系貢獻率能效綜合評估方法，以及面向規劃計劃的項目體系貢獻率評估方法三方面開展評估方法研究。第三篇為體系貢獻率評估應用，主要圍繞裝備系統體系貢獻率和裝備項目體系貢獻率兩方面的典型案例進行應用驗證。本書可作為戰略規劃部門、裝備論證部門、試驗鑒定基地和國防工業總體部門開展裝備規劃論證、裝備體系建設與運用等工作的參考書，也可以作為系統工程專業研究生實踐教學的參考書。
李小波，男，湖南衡南人。2013年獲得國防科技大學系統工程專業博士學位，現為國防科技大學系統工程學院副教授，中國仿真學會人工社會專委會委員。主要研究方向為戰略管理與仿真預實踐、體系設計與貢獻率評估。發表系統工程、建模仿真論文50余篇，其中SCI檢索10余篇，獲得國家發明專利4項。第一作者論文獲得2012亞洲仿真會議最佳論文獎、2018年中國仿真大會優秀論文獎。
第一篇 體系貢獻率評估理論
第1 章 體系貢獻率評估概述·························································.002
1.1 戰略規劃視野下的體系貢獻率問題背景···································.002
1.1.1 體系貢獻率：使命組織發展的核心價值觀························.002
1.1.2 面向戰略規劃研究的體系貢獻率問題分析························.004
1.2 體系貢獻率的概念特性························································.008
1.2.1 體系貢獻率的概念內涵················································.008
1.2.2 體系貢獻率的基本特性················································.011
1.3 體系貢獻率評估的研究框架··················································.012
1.3.1 問題域研究框架·························································.012
1.3.2 技術域研究框架·························································.014
1.3.3 總體研究框架····························································.014
1.4 體系貢獻率評估的研究進展··················································.015
1.4.1 國內研究進展綜述······················································.015
1.4.2 國外研究進展綜述······················································.023
1.4.3 研究進展小結····························································.026
1.4.4 重點研究方向····························································.027
第2 章 體系貢獻率評估的基礎理論··············································.029
2.1 復雜系統與復雜網絡···························································.029
2.1.1 復雜系統的凈貢獻概念················································.029
2.1.2 復雜適應系統理論······················································.029
2.1.3 復雜網絡理論····························································.030
2.1.4 超網絡理論·······························································.030
2.2 體系工程與能力機理···························································.031
2.2.1 體系貢獻率的能力基準：基于能力的體系工程思想············.031
2.2.2 體系貢獻率的作用原理：體系網絡任務鏈路動量原理·········.035
2.2.3 體系貢獻率的成因機理：體系協同、適應與層次涌現特性···.037
2.2.4 體系貢獻率的能力培育：作戰體系能力生成周期模型·········.040
2.3 體系能力與效能及特性評估··················································.040
2.3.1 體系能力評估····························································.041
2.3.2 體系效能評估····························································.048
2.3.3 體系特性評估····························································.050
2.4 體系仿真實驗與認知演化計算···············································.052
2.4.1 體系仿真實驗····························································.052
2.4.2 認知演化計算····························································.058
2.4.3 體系動力學仿真·························································.064
第3 章 體系貢獻率評估的基準流程··············································.065
3.1 體系貢獻率評估需求分析·····················································.065
3.1.1 國家安全戰略需求分析················································.066
3.1.2 重要作戰方向分析······················································.067
3.1.3 體系使命能力分析······················································.068
3.1.4 作戰任務活動分析······················································.069
3.1.5 裝備功能要求分析······················································.070
3.1.6 裝備評估需求分析······················································.071
3.2 體系貢獻率評估方案設計·····················································.072
3.2.1 明確評估問題對象······················································.072
3.2.2 設置軍事作戰想定······················································.075
3.2.3 構建評估指標框架······················································.076
3.2.4 擬制總體評估方案······················································.077
3.3 體系貢獻率全局能力評估·····················································.078
3.3.1 能力評估模型構建······················································.079
3.3.2 多源數據獲取融合······················································.080
3.3.3 能力評估模型解算······················································.081
3.3.4 能力貢獻結果計算······················································.081
3.3.5 能力評估結果分析······················································.082
3.4 體系貢獻率重點效能評估·····················································.083
3.4.1 效能評估方案制定······················································.084
3.4.2 效能仿真想定設置······················································.084
3.4.3 效能仿真實驗設計······················································.085
3.4.4 仿真模型開發集成······················································.085
3.4.5 仿真實驗運行表現······················································.086
3.4.6 效能貢獻計算分析······················································.086
3.5 體系貢獻率能效綜合評估·····················································.087
3.5.1 效能-能力聚合評估····················································.088
3.5.2 能力-效能迭代評估····················································.088
3.5.3 能力-效能定量建模····················································.089
3.5.4 綜合貢獻評估解算······················································.090
3.6 體系貢獻率評估結果分析·····················································.090
3.6.1 評估結果機理分析······················································.091
3.6.2 評估結果多維展現······················································.091
3.6.3 評估結果決策支持······················································.092
第4 章 體系貢獻率評估指標框架··················································.094
4.1 基于體系能力的指標框架·····················································.094
4.1.1 支持貢獻率評估的體系能力模型····································.094
4.1.2 面向全域關鍵能力的體系貢獻率評估指標框架··················.096
4.1.3 基于功能-能力聚合的體系貢獻率評估指標框架·················.098
4.1.4 基于改進結構方程模型的體系作戰能力評估指標框架·········.099
4.2 基于體系效能的指標框架·····················································.102
4.2.1 籃球賽高階綜合評估指標借鑒·······································.102
4.2.2 基于目標任務鏈路效能的指標框架·································.104
4.2.3 基于使命任務活動效能的指標框架·································.105
4.2.4 基于體系對抗場景效能的指標框架·································.107
4.3 基于能力生成機理的指標框架···············································.109
4.3.1 緊扣體系能力生成機理，以適應度、影響度和重要度為核心··.110
4.3.2 能力與效能指標相結合，基于效能進行能力評估與驗證······.111
4.3.3 靜態戰術技術指標與動態使命任務指標綜合·····················.112
4.3.4 基于整體論思想探索體系整體性指標······························.112
4.3.5 綜合考慮成本效益等方面的因素，構建全面的指標框架······.114
4.3.6 根據裝備種類、問題層次和發展階段有針對性地建立具體的
綜合性指標框架·························································.114
第二篇 體系貢獻率評估方法
第5 章 典型裝備系統體系貢獻率評估方法····································.116
5.1 基于能力的體系貢獻率評估方法············································.116
5.1.1 基于作戰網絡的能力貢獻率評估方法······························.116
5.1.2 基于結構的能力貢獻率評估方法····································.119
5.1.3 基于RIMER 的能力貢獻率評估方法·······························.121
5.1.4 基于架構與矩陣范數的多維度能力貢獻率評估方法············.122
5.2 基于效能的體系貢獻率評估方法············································.128
5.2.1 基于系統動力學的效能貢獻率評估方法···························.128
5.2.2 基于作戰環的效能貢獻率評估方法·································.130
5.2.3 基于深度置信網絡的效能貢獻率評估方法························.133
5.2.4 基于價值中心法的效能貢獻率評估方法···························.136
5.3 體系貢獻率綜合評估方法·····················································.137
5.3.1 基于AHP 的定性-定量綜合評估方法······························.137
5.3.2 基于SEM 的能力-效能綜合評估方法······························.141
5.3.3 基于MMF-OODA 的結構-行為綜合評估方法····················.144
5.3.4 多類型體系貢獻率綜合評估方法····································.145
第6 章 基于OODA 的體系貢獻率能效綜合評估方法·····················.149
6.1 能效綜合評估方法的原理·····················································.149
6.2 能效綜合評估方法的實施步驟···············································.150
6.3 體系貢獻率評估模型框架·····················································.152
6.4 評估方法的關鍵支撐技術·····················································.153
6.4.1 基于OODA 功能回路的體系網絡建模與分析····················.153
6.4.2 基于效能仿真數據的OODA 功能回路分析·······················.159
6.4.3 基于認知計算的能力-效能綜合評估·······························.168
6.5 案例研究··········································································.169
第7 章 面向使命任務的體系貢獻率能效綜合評估方法···················.175
7.1 面向使命任務的能效綜合評估方法框架···································.175
7.1.1 評估問題的輸入與輸出················································.175
7.1.2 體系貢獻率的評估過程················································.176
7.1.3 能效綜合分析與評估框架·············································.180
7.2 基于定量HOQ 的指標關聯關系分析·······································.181
7.2.1 HOQ 矩陣的構建························································.181
7.2.2 基于仿真實驗的QFD 矩陣構建過程································.184
7.3 基于組合賦權TOPSIS 的體系集成方案對比······························.186
7.3.1 TOPSIS····································································.186
7.3.2 使命任務需求滿足度評估·············································.186
7.3.3 體系貢獻率計算·························································.188
7.4 案例研究··········································································.188
7.4.1 案例背景··································································.188
7.4.2 實驗結果及評定·························································.190
7.4.3 結果分析··································································.193
第8 章 面向規劃計劃的項目體系貢獻率評估方法··························.194
8.1 基于能力生成周期模型的項目體系貢獻率評估方法····················.194
8.1.1 問題背景分析····························································.194
8.1.2 評估方法的總體框架···················································.199
8.1.3 實施步驟··································································.200
8.2 基于聯合使命任務線程的項目體系貢獻率評估方法····················.205
8.2.1 聯合使命任務線程概述················································.205
8.2.2 實施步驟··································································.207
8.2.3 案例研究··································································.210
第三篇 體系貢獻率評估應用
第9 章 裝備系統體系貢獻率評估應用案例····································.216
9.1 體系貢獻率評估方法頂層應用流程·········································.216
9.2 巡飛彈系統體系貢獻率的宏觀論證·········································.217
9.2.1 基于QFD 的巡飛彈系統體系貢獻率需求分析····················.218
9.2.2 巡飛彈系統需求分析中HOQ 的構造過程·························.221
9.2.3 “國家安全戰略需求—重要作戰方向”HOQ 矩陣的構造·······.229
9.2.4 “重要作戰方向—體系使命能力”HOQ 矩陣的構造·············.230
9.2.5 “體系使命能力—作戰任務清單”HOQ 矩陣的構造·············.232
9.2.6 “作戰任務清單—裝備功能需求”HOQ 矩陣的構造·············.234
9.2.7 基于能力需求滿足度的體系貢獻率宏觀論證分析···············.236
9.3 巡飛彈系統體系貢獻率的型號裝備論證···································.237
9.3.1 基于CCI-CTI 的仿真想定設置分析·································.237
9.3.2 仿真想定設定····························································.238
9.3.3 仿真應用開發····························································.239
9.3.4 仿真實驗設計····························································.241
9.3.5 效能貢獻率評估分析···················································.243
第10 章 裝備項目體系貢獻率評估應用案例··································.246
10.1 智能化無人作戰力量體系建設需求········································.246
10.1.1 無人裝備建設與發展趨勢···········································.246
10.1.2 基于“馬賽克戰”的無人作戰力量規劃計劃與體系籌劃設計·······.250
10.2 “馬賽克戰”作戰體系能力生成周期模型的構建·······················.257
10.3 項目與作戰體系能力關聯建模··············································.258
10.4 基于能力生成周期模型的項目體系貢獻率評估·························.265
參考文獻························································································.267
新書資訊