氣候變化與健康日益成為國內外關注的熱門話題。應對氣候變化健康風險成為公共衛生領域面臨的重大挑戰與發展機遇，而開展氣候變化健康風險評估是進行有效應對的基礎。目前國內外已廣泛開展氣候變化對人類健康的影響研究，并形成了一套科學的理論和方法體系。本書將系統總結氣候變化與健康研究領域前沿且成熟的方法，并依托具體的案例詳細介紹各個方法的實際應用，以指導國內研究人員開展氣候變化健康領域的科學研究。
本書由13個章節組成，內容主要包括：氣候變化與健康領域常用分析方法理論以及實際應用，包括了基于時間序列數據的關聯分析方法、空間分析方法、氣候變化影響人群健康的脆弱性評估以及未來氣候變化對人群健康影響的預估方法等。
主持國家重點研發計劃、全球變化亞太研究網絡等20多個科研基金項目（總科研經費超過2000萬元）
目 錄
第 1 章 緒論 ····················································································· 1
1.1 引言 ···················································································· 1
1.1.1 天氣、氣候、氣候變化與極端事件 ······················································ 1
1.1.2 溫室氣體排放情景 ··········································································· 2
1.2 氣候變化基本事實 ·································································· 2
1.2.1 全球氣候變化現狀 ··········································································· 2
1.2.2 中國氣候變化現狀 ··········································································· 3
1.3 氣候變化健康風險 ·································································· 4
1.3.1 氣候變化影響人群健康的機制路徑 ······················································ 4
1.3.2 氣候變化對全球人群健康的影響 ························································· 4
1.3.3 氣候變化對我國人群健康的影響 ························································· 6
1.4 氣候變化健康風險評估方法 ······················································ 8
1.4.1 研究設計 ······················································································· 8
1.4.2 暴露評估 ····················································································· 10
1.4.3 暴露-反應關系評價 ········································································ 11
1.4.4 歸因風險評價 ··············································································· 12
1.4.5 脆弱性評估 ·················································································· 13
1.4.6 基于氣候變化情景的未來風險預估 ···················································· 13
參考文獻 ···················································································· 14
第 2 章 時間序列分析方法 ·································································· 16
2.1 引言 ··················································································· 16
2.1.1 用于預測的時間序列分析 ································································ 16
2.1.2 用于關聯性研究的時間序列分析 ······················································· 17
2.2 時間序列分析常用數據資源 ····················································· 19
2.2.1 數據資源類型及獲取途徑 ································································ 19
2.2.2 數據處理 ····················································································· 20
2.3 常用分析方法和研究設計 ························································ 20
2.3.1 分布滯后非線性模型 ······································································ 20
2.3.2 斷點時間序列 ··············································································· 21
·ii· 氣候變化健康風險評估方法與應用
2.3.3 雙重差分方法 ··············································································· 22
2.3.4 時間分層的病例交叉研究 ································································ 23
2.3.5 單純病例研究 ··············································································· 23
2.4 小結 ··················································································· 24
參考文獻 ···················································································· 24
第 3 章 地理信息分析方法 ·································································· 27
3.1 引言 ··················································································· 27
3.2 地理信息分析方法與健康研究進展概述 ······································ 27
3.2.1 地理信息系統與健康研究 ································································ 28
3.2.2 遙感與健康研究 ············································································ 30
3.2.3 空間和時空分析與健康研究 ····························································· 32
3.3 暴露評價方法 ······································································· 45
3.4 高風險聚集區識別 ································································· 47
3.5 空間異質性與驅動因子識別 ····················································· 48
3.6 小結 ··················································································· 49
參考文獻 ···················································································· 50
第 4 章 基于 DLNM 方法分析氣溫對多地區人群死亡的影響 ······················ 53
4.1 引言 ··················································································· 53
4.2 方法學現狀與進展 ································································· 54
4.3 基于多地區數據評估全國氣溫與死亡的非線性關系研究 ················· 56
4.3.1 案例簡介 ····················································································· 56
4.3.2 數據收集 ····················································································· 56
4.3.3 描述性分析 ·················································································· 58
4.3.4 確定基本模型和參數 ······································································ 59
4.3.5 基于 DLNM 的二階段分析方法 ························································· 60
4.4 小結 ··················································································· 63
參考文獻 ···················································································· 64
第 5 章 基于廣義相加模型分析極端天氣事件對人群發病的影響 ·················· 66
5.1 引言 ·················
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