本書介紹了許多減少洪水影響的方法和途徑, 特別是針對那些易于遭受洪水災害的地區和居民。大規模的人類活動, 導致溫室氣體的濃度不斷增加, 改變著地球的氣候, 全球變暖, 強降雨事件將發生得更為頻繁, 這從物理機制上就意味著將會有更多的洪水事件發生。因此, 洪水對弱勢群體的影響將會增大, 要求采取行動的呼聲也隨之提高。本書的重要性就在于及時的向人們介紹在所需采取的行動中如何減輕洪水的風險。
本書向人們介紹如何針對未來氣候變化開展洪水風險評估，并據此及早制定更為有效的應對措施，尤其針對易于遭受洪水災害的地區和居民。
I have stated many times that I am one of the lucky few who have the opportunity to work all their professional lives in an area that they enjoy. The most enjoyable activity for me is to integrate knowledge from different fields into an approach for solving complex problems that include uncertainty. My work has brought me into contact with many people, responsible professionals, talented engineers, capable managers, and dedicated politicians. In my capacity as an academic I have also had an opportunity to work with young talented peoplethe future of our workforce. I learned a lot from all of them. I learned many things about the profession, I learned a lot about different cultures, and most importantly I learned about life. Thank you.
My interest in risk and flooding as a natural disaster grew from my main area of expertisewater resources systems management. From the early days of my professional career I was involved with floods and flood management, first from an engineering point of view and then later from a management point of view. Flood problems along the Morava, Sava, and Danube rivers in my country of originSerbiawere among the first professional challenges I had to deal with after graduation. In 1997, I was teaching at the University of Manitoba and living in Winnipeg. That was the year of the “Flood of the Century.” The governments of Canada and the USA have agreed that steps must be taken to reduce the impact of future flooding on the Red River. In June 1997, they asked the International Joint Commission (IJC) to analyze the causes and effects of the Red River flood of that year. The IJC appointed the International Red River Basin Task Force to examine a range of alternatives to prevent or reduce future flood damage. I was appointed to the task force and the subsequent experience changed my life.
My work has taken me all over the world. I have had an opportunity to see flood problems in the developed and developing world, in small villages and large urban centers. Projects I have been involved with range in scale from the local to the international. I have discussed flooding issues with farmers of the Sihu area in China as well as the Minister for Irrigation and Water Resources of Egypt. I hope that my professional expertise continues to contribute to the solution of some of these problems. It definitely inspires me to continue to work with greater effort and more dedication.
For more than 35 years of personal research, consulting, teaching, involvement in policy, implementation of projects, and presentation of experiences through the pages of many professional journals, I have worked hard to raise awareness of the importance of uncertaintyobjective and subjectivein the solution of complex problems. The main thrust of my work is the use of a systems approach in dealing with complexity. I have accumulated tremendous experience over the years. In that time I realized that there is an opportunity to contribute to the area of flood risk management by transferring some of the knowledge and experience from the implementation of systems thinking and systems tools to various steps of the flood risk management cycle. Writing this book offered me a moment of reflection, and it elaborates on lessons learned from the past to develop ideas for the future.
我經常說我很幸運，能夠有機會把職業作為自己的愛好，并樂在其中。最讓我感到享受的事情就是整合不同領域的知識，從中找到求解復雜不確定性問題的方法。由于工作原因，我得以有機會接觸很多人——認真負責的教授，才華橫溢的工程師，精明能干的管理人員以及富有奉獻精神的政治家。作為一名學者，我也有機會與許多青年才俊一起工作，他們是未來的動力。我從我所遇到的人那里學到了很多東西，學到了專業知識，學到了不同的文化，最重要的是我明白了人生的意義。非常感謝你們。
我對洪水災害與風險的興趣衍生于我的主要專業領域——水資源系統管理。我在職業生涯的早期就涉及洪水及洪水管理的問題，最初是從工程的角度，而后轉向了管理的視點。大學畢業后，我最早不得不應對的專業挑戰中，就有我的祖國塞爾維亞的Morava河、Sava河以及多瑙河沿岸的洪水問題。1997年，當那場“世紀洪水”發生時，我正居住在溫尼伯市，并在Manitoba大學任教。洪水過后，加拿大和美國政府一致認為必須采取措施以減輕未來Red河水患的影響。1997年6月，兩國政府要求國際聯合委員會（IJC）分析當年Red河大洪水的成因及其影響。IJC指定國際Red河流域特別小組開展了一系列的研究，提出預防和減輕未來洪災損失的應對措施。我應招加入特別小組，這段經歷徹底改變了我的生活。
由于工作原因，我有機會到訪過世界各地，看到發達國家和發展中國家的各種洪水問題，從小村莊到大都市。我參與過的項目涉及廣泛，從區域課題到國際項目。我與中國四湖地區的農民以及埃及水利部長都討論過洪水問題。我希望我的專業知識繼續為解決其中的一些問題作出貢獻，這定將激勵我以更大的努力和更多的奉獻不斷工作下去。
35年來，我一直從事研究、咨詢和教學工作，也參與了政策制定及工程實施，并在許多專業期刊上發表過學術論文。我一直努力工作，致力于在解決復雜問題的過程中提高對不確定性問題的認識（包括主觀不確定性和客觀不確定性）。我工作的重點是運用系統論方法解決復雜性的問題，多年來已積累了許多經驗。于是，我希望能有一個機會為洪水風險管理領域做貢獻，將相關的知識和經驗——從系統思維和系統工具的實現，到洪水風險管理全過程的各個環節——介紹給世人。本書的寫作，也給了我一個反思的契機，從以往教訓的剖析中獲得未來發展的理念——前事不忘，后事之師。
致謝|Acknowledgements
Publishing this book was made possible through the contributions of many people. I would like to start by acknowledging the publication support provided by the International Hydrologic Programme of UNESCO, and the Water Science Division team including Siegfried Demuth and Biljana Radojevic. Most of the knowledge contained in this book came from my numerous interactions with teachers, students, and colleagues throughout the world. They taught me all I know. I would like particularly to thank the students whose work is used in this text. In order of appearance in the text, they are HyungIll Eum (Chapter 3), Dragan Sredojevic (Chapter 3), Lisa BoweringTaylor (Chapter 3), AngelaPeck (Chapter 3), DejanVucetic (Chapters 4 and 5), Ozren Despic (Chapter 5), Ibrahim ElBaroudi (Chapter 5), Taslima Akter (Chapter 5), and Mike Bender (Chapter 5). A special thank you goes to Veerakcudy Rajasekaram, who is the developer of the computer programs.
The support of my family, Dijana, Damjan, and Tanja, was of the utmost importance in the development of this book. They provide a very large part of my motivation, my goals, my energy, and my spirit. Without the endless encouragement, criticism, advice, and support of my wife Tanja this book would never have been completed.
在多方人士的共同努力下，本書得以出版發行。在此，我首先要感謝聯合國教科文組織國際水文計劃署和水科學部，特別感謝Siegfried Demuth和Biljana Radojevic對本書出版給予的大力支持。本書中的大部分內容來源于世界各地，由我的老師、學生還有同事們提供的，是他們讓我懂得了更多的知識。我要特別感謝參與本書編寫的學生們，按照編寫章節的順序，他們是： 參與第3章編寫工作的HyungⅢ Eum, Dragan Sredojevic，Lisa BoweringTaylor，Angela Peck； 參與編寫第4章和第5章工作的Dejan Vucetic； 參與第5章編寫工作的Ozren Despic, Ibrahim ElBaroudi，Taslima Akter 和 Mike Bender。此外，還要特別感謝開發計算程序的Veerakcudy Rajasekaram。
感謝家人給予我的支持，Dijana，Damjan和Tanja對于我能夠完成本書是至關重要的。正是他們給予我動力和能力，鼓舞了我的精神，使得我能夠實現我的目標。如果沒有我的妻子Tanja給我莫大的鼓勵和支持、一直以來的批評和建議，我是無法完成本書的編寫工作的。
譯者的話|Preface
洪水災害千百年來一直困擾著世界各地的人們。2000—2010年期間所有災害損失中，有過半的損失是由水文地質災害——主要是洪水和泥石流——造成的。據統計，2000—2010年全球洪災年均損失高達200億美元。Slobodan P. Simonovic先生編著的這本關于洪水風險管理的書，介紹了許多減輕洪水影響的方法和途徑，特別是針對那些易于遭受洪水災害的地區和居民。目前，隨著空前規模的人類活動不斷加劇，溫室氣體的濃度顯著攀升，并正在影響著地球氣候的變化。隨著全球變暖，強降雨事件將更為頻繁，這從物理機制上意味著將會有更多的洪水事件發生，尤其是針對弱勢群體，洪水的不利影響將會明顯增大，因此要求采取防范行動的呼聲也隨之高漲。本書的重要性就在于及時向人們介紹如何針對未來氣候變化開展洪水風險評估，并據此及早制定更為有效的應對措施。
作者基于全球觀測和眾多學者的研究成果，系統闡述了氣候變化背景下全球洪水風險的演變機理與趨向，探討了針對氣候變化的洪水風險評估理論與方法，并以眾多典型案例分類說明了不同評估方法的適用性與可行性，進而有針對性地介紹了許多減輕洪水風險的途徑和適應性措施。全書視野開闊，內容豐富，案例深入淺出，對于了解該領域國際前沿動向和開展洪水風險管理的研究與實踐具有很好的參考價值。
全書共分6章。第1章（韓松譯）介紹了洪災給人類帶來的巨大危害，而且危害程度越來越高。進入新千年，氣候變化對全球的影響重大且廣泛。人口增加、城市化等人為因素是造成氣候變化的根本原因。而氣候變化又改變了洪水的物理特性。作者認為洪災損失是地球物理系統、人類系統和建造物系統及其多個子系統間相互作用的結果。開展洪水可持續管理的目標是減少洪水發生的概率和可能造成的影響，而制定洪水風險管理計劃是最有效率的方法。
第2章（郭重汕譯）詳細論述氣候變化和洪水風險的關系。作者首先分析了洪水的成因與類型，以及流域形態、林地砍伐、農田排水和城市化等對洪水物理特性的影響。隨后，從氣候變化和氣候變異兩個方面，基于對全球尺度、地區尺度和流域尺度的監測數據分析，進一步闡釋了極端溫度、極端降水和季風降雨對洪水發生過程的影響及未來變化趨勢。最后，作者介紹了面對氣候變化這一全球性挑戰的兩種途徑——減緩與適應。
第3章（王妍煒譯）首先詳述了適應一詞的含義，適應氣候變化的內容以及適應性、敏感性、強韌性等名詞的概念。作者強調適應氣候變化是為降低社會對氣候系統變化的脆弱性而對行為或經濟結構作出的各種調整。這種調整可以是自發的，也可以是計劃的。洪水風險管理是災害管理的一種，是互動式的決策過程，包括災害的預防、響應與恢復。而適應性洪水風險管理是將適應性管理與洪水風險管理的方法合二為一，是一種應對洪水復雜性的系統方法。本章詳細介紹了洪水管理措施中解決不確定性的概率方法和模糊集方法，及各自的適用范圍和優缺點。隨后，以加拿大安大略省London市為例，說明如何對氣候變化導致的市政基礎設施洪水風險進行自上而下的評價。
第4章（張誠，韓松譯，冶運濤、秦濤參與校稿工作）作者介紹了在洪水風險分析中使用概率法的詳細做法。首先介紹了概率的數學定義、風險類型、風險標準、概率風險模型建立的步驟。詳細說明了洪水風險管理概率工具在實踐中的應用，包括蒙特卡洛模擬、進化優化算法、概率多目標規劃等，每種工具都引用若干案例說明具體建模步驟及難點的處理辦法，并編制了計算程序，發布在相關網站上，便于讀者學習和使用。
第5章（朱瑤譯）探討了氣候變化條件下模糊集理論在處理洪水風險管理各種不確定性中的應用。相對于概率論方法，模糊集方法更能解決氣候變化條件下的不確定性問題。作者詳細介紹了模糊風險的定義與模糊風險指標，以及風險管理中使用模糊集的三種工具： 模糊模擬、模糊優化和模糊多目標分析。最后通過實際案例對三種工具的建模步驟和難點進行了詳細說明，并編制了計算程序，發布在相關網站上。
第6章（朱瑤譯）是對全書內容的總結。作者首先總結了氣候變化與洪水風險之間的關聯關系，氣候變化影響范圍大而深遠，使洪水風險存在更多不確定性。本書提出的交互式洪水風險管理方法為政策制定者對氣候變化影響作出判斷和制定對策提供了實用指南。使用模糊集方法解決洪水風險管理是本書的創新性觀點。
本書的翻譯、出版得到了中國水利水電科學研究院程曉陶教授和彭靜教授的大力支持。在本書的翻譯過程中，程曉陶教授對全書譯稿進行了悉心的指導，并對全文進行了審校。張建立教授和萬洪濤教授為本書提出了寶貴意見。朱瑤博士對全書進行了統稿。本書出版得到 “十二五”科技支撐項目（2012BAC21B02）“太湖流域洪水風險演變及適應技術集成與應用”和國家自然科學基金青年基金（41401045）“水文過程對彎曲型河道橫向植被格局累積影響及調控方法”的資助。在此一并表示衷心感謝。
由于譯者水平有限，在翻譯過程中難免出現紕漏之處，對譯文有疑義的地方，讀者可對照英文原文理解作者的本意，并歡迎批評指正。
譯者
中國水利水電科學研究院
2016年5月
Foreword3
Preface5
Foreword7
Preface11
Acknowledgements13
Definitions15
Acronyms and abbreviations21
Chapter 1Flood risk management1
1.1The global flood problem4
1.2Problem context8
1.3Flood risk15
1.4How do we manage flood risk?17
1.5Systems view of flood risk
management19
1.6Conclusions23
1.7Exercises24
Chapter 2Climate change and risk of
flooding25
2.1Floods and their physical
characteristics27
2.2Climate change and variation
impacts35
2.3Approaches for dealing with
climate change49
2.4Conclusions55
2.5Exercises57
Chapter 3Risk management as adaptation to
climate change59
3.1Flood risk management decision
process63
3.2Approaches to flood risk management
as adaptation to climate change74
3.3An example: Climate changecaused flood
risk to municipal infrastructure,City
of London (Ontario,Canada)82
3.4Conclusions124
3.5Exercises125
Chapter 4Risk management: probabilistic
approach127
4.1Mathematical definition of risk129
4.2Classification of risk135
4.3Risk criteria138
4.4Probabilistic risk modeling141
4.5Probabilistic tools for flood risk
management147
4.6Conclusions213
4.7Exercises214
Chapter 5Risk management: fuzzy set
approach217
5.1Paradigm change219
5.2Introduction to fuzzy sets222
5.3Fuzzy risk definition241
5.4Fuzzy tools for flood risk management
under climate change249
5.5Conclusions307
5.6Exercises308
Chapter 6Future perspectives311
6.1Understanding climate change and
flood risk management313
6.2Adaptive flood risk management
under climate change316
6.3Risk communication319
6.4Conclusions323
References325
譯著序言3
譯者的話5
序言7
前言11
致謝13
術語15
縮略詞21
第1章洪水風險管理1
1.1全球洪水問題4
1.2洪水問題的內涵8
1.3洪水風險15
1.4如何管理洪水風險17
1.5洪水風險管理的系統觀點19
1.6結論23
1.7練習題24
第2章氣候變化與洪水風險25
2.1洪水及其物理特性27
2.2氣候變化和變異的影響35
2.3氣候變化的應對措施49
2.4結論55
2.5練習題57
第3章適應氣候變化的風險管理59
3.1洪水風險管理決策過程63
3.2適應氣候變化的洪水風險管理
措施74
3.3案例： 氣候變化導致加拿大安大略省
London市市政基礎設施
洪水風險82
3.4結論124
3.5練習題125
第4章風險管理： 概率法127
4.1風險的數學定義129
4.2風險類型135
4.3風險標準138
4.4概率風險模型的建立141
4.5洪水風險管理的概率工具147
4.6結論213
4.7練習題214
第5章風險管理： 模糊集方法217
5.1模式轉變219
5.2模糊集介紹222
5.3模糊風險的定義241
5.4氣候變化條件下洪水風險管理中的
模糊工具249
5.5結論307
5.6練習題308
第6章未來前景311
6.1了解氣候變化與洪水風險管理313
6.2氣候變化背景下適應性洪水風險
管理316
6.3風險溝通319
6.4結束語323
參考文獻325
第1章洪水風險管理|Flood risk management
Chapter 1Flood risk management
A flood is a very simple natural phenomenon that occurs when a body of water rises to overflow land that is not normally submerged (Ward,1978) At the same time,a flood is a very complex phenomenon that connects the natural environment,people,and the social systems of their organization Flooding causes loss of human life It damages infrastructure such as roads,bridges,and buildings,and hurts agricultural productivity because of lost crops and soil erosion Flood disaster relief often requires enormous funding Connectivity increases risks As more links are present among the elements of natural,social,and technological systems,these systems develop unexpected patterns of connections that make breakdown more likely
We are witnessing many catastrophic flood disasters European floods in 2002 caused more than 7 billion damage Hurricane Katrina caused flooding in 2005 that was the costliest natural disaster,as well as one of the five deadliest,in the history of the USA At least 1,836 people lost their lives in the actual hurricane and in the subsequent floods; total property damage was estimated at US$81 billion In June of 2006,northeastern Bangladesh disappeared under monsoon floods as rains drenched the region The floods stretched across hundreds of kilometers of what had been dry land a month earlier and inundated two thirds of the territory of the country Typhoon Morakot of 2009 was the deadliest typhoon to impact Taiwan in recorded history It created catastrophic damage in Taiwan,leaving 461 people dead and 192 others missing,and roughly US$3 3 billion in damage The storm produced huge amounts of rainfall,peaking at 2,777 mm (109 3 in) The extreme amount of rain triggered enormous mudslides and severe flooding throughout southern Taiwan One mudslide buried the entire town of Xiaolin,killing an estimated 500 people In the wake of the flood,Taiwans President Ma Yingjeou faced extreme criticism for the slow response to the disaster,having initially deployed only roughly 2,100 soldiers to the affected regions Later additions of troops increased the number of soldiers to 46,000 The 2010 China floods began in early May The total death toll as of August 5 was 2,507 More than 305 million people in 28 provinces,municipalities,and regions were affected,while at least 12 million people had been evacuated because of the risk of flooding and landslides by early August As I am writing these words,Pakistans deadliest floods in decades have killed more than 1,500 people and overwhelmed government efforts to provide aid The floods death toll may rise to 3,000 Approximately 20 million people had been affected by floods by early August Regions downstream in the Indus River valley,where most of Pakistans 162 million people live,are bracing for floods that may damage crops
第1章洪水風險管理
洪水是一種非常簡單的自然現象。當洪水發生時，水體水位升高淹沒平常不受淹的陸地(Ward,1978)。同時，洪水也是一種非常復雜的現象，與自然環境、人類及其社會組織體系有密不可分的關系。洪水泛濫會導致人員傷亡，也會毀壞基礎設施，例如道路、橋梁和建筑物等，并因土壤侵蝕、農作物受損而破壞農業生產力。減輕洪災往往需要巨大的投入。現代社會多個系統之間的連通性使得洪水風險大大增加。隨著自然、社會和科技系統中各單元之間的聯系越來越多，這些系統間連接的故障就更可能呈現突發的模式。
我們見證過很多大洪災： 2002年歐洲大洪水造成70億歐元的損失。2005年卡特里娜颶風引發的洪災造成了最為嚴重的經濟損失，這場災難也是美國歷史上傷亡最重的五大災難之一。在颶風災害和隨后的洪災中，至少有1836人死亡，總資產損失估計達到810億美元。2006年6月，因為持續的降雨，孟加拉國東北部變成了一片澤國。洪水淹沒的區域縱深達幾百公里，將一個月前還安然無恙的陸地全部淹沒。此次洪災使得孟加拉國2/3的領土被淹。2009年的莫拉克臺風是中國臺灣有記錄以來最致命的一場臺風，帶來了災難性的破壞，共有461人死亡，192人失蹤，經濟損失達33億美元。風暴使得降雨量激增，最大降雨量達2777 mm（109 3 in）。極端降雨引發了臺灣南部嚴重的泥石流和洪水災害，其中，小林村整個村子都被泥石流掩埋，估計死亡500人。洪水暴發后，臺灣當局領導也因對災害救援反應遲緩而飽受批評。災害發生后，政府僅僅出動2100名士兵前往災區救援，難以滿足救災需求，所以又增援士兵46000人。2010年中國大陸的洪水始于5月，至8月5日死亡人數已達2507人，28個省、自治區和直轄市受災，受影響人口達3 05億人。截至8月初，中國至少有1200萬人因洪水和滑坡風險而被迫撤離。就在我寫這本書的時候（2010年，譯者注），巴基斯坦發生了近幾十年來最嚴重的洪災，死亡人口超過1500人，政府的救災努力收效甚微。洪災導致的死亡人口總數可能將達到3000人，截至2010年8月初，受洪災影響的人口約為2000萬人。Indus河下游地區有1 62億巴基斯坦人及大片的農田隨時可能被洪水淹沒。
1 1The global flood problem
Assessing the global flood problem is not an easy task due to gaps and numerous deficiencies in statistics,the highly variable quality of the available data,and the problems of comparing flood impacts across the wide socioeconomic development spectrum Most of the information to be presented here is from the Dartmouth Flood Data Observatory (2010) inGermany,the Emergency Events Database EMDAT of the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED,2009) in Belgium and the Munich Re NatCatSERVICE online database (Munich Re,2011)
The longer time period records (traced back to 1900,although more reliable after 1950) show a relentless upward movement in the number of natural disasters (Figure 1 1) and their human and economic impact (Figure 1 2) Black indicates the number and impacts of flood disasters It is troubling that disaster risk and impacts have been increasing during a period of global economic growth On the good side,a greater proportion of economic surplus could be better distributed to alleviate thegrowing risk of disaster On the bad side,it is possible that development paths are themselves creating the problem: increasing hazards (for example through global climate change and environmental degradation),human vulnerability (through income poverty and political marginalization),or both
The information on flood disasters presented in Figures 1 3 to 1 6 is taken from EMDAT: The CRED International Disaster Database for the period 1950—2010 In order for a disaster to be entered into the database at least one of the following criteria has to be fulfilled: 10 or more people reported killed; 100 people reported affected; a call for international assistance; and declaration of a state of emergency
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新書資訊