同類多產(chǎn)品并存擴(kuò)散是一種很普遍的市場現(xiàn)象，如智能手機(jī)、平板電腦、新能源汽車等。因此，掌握多產(chǎn)品擴(kuò)散規(guī)律不僅對于企業(yè)制定研發(fā)計(jì)劃和營銷策略十分重要，對于消費(fèi)者選購產(chǎn)品也很有參考價(jià)值。對多產(chǎn)品擴(kuò)散模型的研究有宏觀和微觀兩種建模方法。基于宏觀建模方法的多產(chǎn)品擴(kuò)散模型已經(jīng)有很多，但是這種模型存在一個(gè)很大的弊端，就是無法從微觀層面解釋宏觀擴(kuò)散結(jié)果，這嚴(yán)重限制了宏觀模型的應(yīng)用。另外，目前基于微觀建模方法的多產(chǎn)品擴(kuò)散模型還非常少，品牌競爭與代際替代并存的多產(chǎn)品擴(kuò)散模型還未出現(xiàn)，而且僅有的少數(shù)模型均未經(jīng)真實(shí)銷售數(shù)據(jù)驗(yàn)證，只適用于理論分析，應(yīng)用價(jià)值有限。基于上述情況，筆者用微觀建模與仿真方法系統(tǒng)研究了3種情形下的多產(chǎn)品擴(kuò)散問題。
喬健，西北工業(yè)大學(xué)管理學(xué)院副教授、碩士生導(dǎo)師。2006年12月于西安交通大學(xué)獲得管理學(xué)博士學(xué)位。2013年12月赴美國亞利桑那大學(xué)埃勒管理學(xué)院訪學(xué)1年。2015~2018年任信息管理系主任。兼任信息系統(tǒng)協(xié)會中國分會、陜西省應(yīng)急管理學(xué)會和陜西省軟科學(xué)研究會理事。擔(dān)任European Journal of Operational Research、IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics、Fuzzy Sets and Systems、IEEE/CAA Journal of Automatica Sinica、西安交通大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(自然版)、中國公路學(xué)報(bào)、長安大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(自然科學(xué)版)、南京航空航天大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(英文版)、系統(tǒng)仿真學(xué)報(bào)等期刊的匿名審稿人。
第1章 緒論··········································································································1
1.1 研究背景及意義······················································································1
1.2 研究進(jìn)展·································································································3
1.2.1 多產(chǎn)品擴(kuò)散模型··········································································4
1.2.2 線上口碑對擴(kuò)散過程的影響·······················································6
1.2.3 社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)對擴(kuò)散過程的影響·······················································8
1.2.4 研究進(jìn)展述評··············································································9
1.3 研究內(nèi)容·······························································································10
1.3.1 消費(fèi)者決策分析········································································10
1.3.2 多代產(chǎn)品擴(kuò)散仿真····································································11
1.3.3 多品牌產(chǎn)品擴(kuò)散仿真································································12
1.3.4 多品牌多代產(chǎn)品擴(kuò)散仿真·························································12
1.4 研究思路及方法····················································································12
1.4.1 消費(fèi)者決策分析········································································12
1.4.2 多代產(chǎn)品擴(kuò)散仿真····································································13
1.4.3 多品牌產(chǎn)品擴(kuò)散仿真································································13
1.4.4 多品牌多代產(chǎn)品擴(kuò)散仿真·························································14
1.5 主要創(chuàng)新·······························································································14
1.6 本章小結(jié)·······························································································15
第2 章 相關(guān)理論與技術(shù)·····················································································16
2.1 效用理論·······························································································16
2.1.1 概述···························································································16
2.1.2 效用函數(shù)的由來········································································16
2.1.3 消費(fèi)者偏好················································································17
2.1.4 效用函數(shù)的類型········································································18
2.1.5 邊際效用····················································································19
2.1.6 期望效用····················································································20
2.1.7 間接效用····················································································21
2.1.8 預(yù)算約束····················································································21
2.2 模糊集理論····························································································22
2.2.1 概述···························································································22
2.2.2 概念定義····················································································23
2.2.3 模糊邏輯····················································································25
2.3 網(wǎng)絡(luò)科學(xué)·······························································································28
2.3.1 概述···························································································28
2.3.2 網(wǎng)絡(luò)屬性····················································································29
2.3.3 網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型····················································································32
2.4 ABMS理論與技術(shù)················································································35
2.4.1 什么是Agent ·············································································35
2.4.2 基于Agent的模型····································································36
2.4.3 Repast Symphony建模仿真平臺···············································38
2.4.4 Mesa建模仿真框架···································································41
2.5 本章小結(jié)·······························································································44
第3章 消費(fèi)者決策分析·····················································································46
3.1 購買決策分析························································································46
3.1.1 消費(fèi)者屬性················································································46
3.1.2 產(chǎn)品屬性····················································································49
3.1.3 社會環(huán)境····················································································53
3.2 評論決策分析························································································55
3.3 本章小結(jié)·······························································································55
第4章 多代產(chǎn)品擴(kuò)散仿真·················································································57
4.1 多代產(chǎn)品擴(kuò)散模型設(shè)計(jì)········································································57
4.1.1 多代產(chǎn)品子模型········································································57
4.1.2 消費(fèi)者Agent子模型·································································58
4.1.3 社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)子模型········································································67
4.1.4 總體框架····················································································67
4.2 多代產(chǎn)品擴(kuò)散仿真實(shí)驗(yàn)········································································68
4.2.1 模型驗(yàn)證····················································································68
4.2.2 敏感性分析················································································74
4.2.3 購買者動力學(xué)分析····································································86
4.2.4 延伸討論····················································································88
4.3 本章小結(jié)·······························································································88
第5章 多品牌產(chǎn)品擴(kuò)散仿真·············································································90
5.1 多品牌產(chǎn)品擴(kuò)散模型設(shè)計(jì)····································································90
5.1.1 多品牌產(chǎn)品子模型····································································90
5.1.2 消費(fèi)者Agent子模型·································································91
5.1.3 社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)子模型········································································96
5.1.4 總體框架····················································································97
5.2 多品牌產(chǎn)品擴(kuò)散仿真實(shí)驗(yàn)····································································97
5.2.1 模型驗(yàn)證····················································································98
5.2.2 敏感性分析··············································································101
5.2.3 購買者動力學(xué)分析··································································117
5.2.4 延伸討論··················································································122
5.3 本章小結(jié)·····························································································123
第6章 多品牌多代產(chǎn)品擴(kuò)散仿真···································································125
6.1 多品牌多代產(chǎn)品擴(kuò)散模型設(shè)計(jì)···························································125
6.1.1 多品牌多代產(chǎn)品子模型··························································125
6.1.2 消費(fèi)者Agent子模型·······························································126
6.1.3 社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)子模型······································································131
6.1.4 總體框架··················································································132
6.2 多品牌多代產(chǎn)品擴(kuò)散仿真實(shí)驗(yàn)···························································136
6.2.1 模型驗(yàn)證··················································································136
6.2.2 敏感性分析··············································································141
6.2.3 購買者動力學(xué)分析··································································146
6.2.4 延伸討論··················································································150
6.3 本章小結(jié)·····························································································151
第7章 總結(jié)與展望··························································································153
7.1 總結(jié)·····································································································153
7.2 展望·····································································································155
參考文獻(xiàn)··············································································································157
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